The projected 2027 federal poverty level (FPL) for a single person is approximately $16,520 per year, and around $34,160 for a family of four in the 48 contiguous states and Washington, D.C. These are estimates. The official 2027 poverty guidelines have not been released yet. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) publishes the real numbers each January, so the 2027 chart will become official in mid to late January 2027. Until then, the figures below are projections built from the confirmed 2026 guidelines and current inflation trends.
This page explains how the projection is calculated, gives a full projected chart for household sizes 1 through 8, and shows what the 2027 numbers could mean for Medicaid, SNAP, and ACA marketplace eligibility. Because inflation in 2026 has been running higher than in recent years, we show a range of scenarios so you can plan around the low, middle, and high end.
Why the 2027 chart is a projection, not official
The federal poverty guidelines are updated once a year. HHS takes the previous year's guidelines and increases them by the change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). The 2026 guidelines, for example, were the 2025 numbers raised by about 2.63%, reflecting inflation across the prior year.
The 2027 guidelines will follow the same method. HHS will take the 2026 figures and raise them by the CPI-U change measured across 2026. Since 2026 is not over yet and the final inflation figure is not locked in, nobody can publish an exact 2027 chart today. What we can do is apply reasonable inflation assumptions to the known 2026 numbers.
As of May 2026, headline inflation was running around 4.2% year over year, its highest reading since 2023, driven largely by an energy price spike. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, was closer to 2.9%. The number that matters for the FPL update is the full-year average change in CPI-U, which typically lands between the headline and core readings. For that reason, the projections below center on a base case of about 3.5%, with a lower scenario of 2.5% and a higher scenario of 4.5%.
Projected 2027 federal poverty level chart (base case, 3.5%)
This chart assumes a 3.5% inflation adjustment applied to the confirmed 2026 guidelines, rounded to the nearest $20 the way HHS rounds its official figures. These are the 48 contiguous states and Washington, D.C. Alaska and Hawaii use higher guidelines, shown further down.
| Household size | 2026 (official) | 2027 (projected) | Monthly (projected) |
|---|
| 1 | $15,960 | $16,520 | $1,377 |
| 2 | $21,640 | $22,400 | $1,867 |
| 3 | $27,320 | $28,280 | $2,357 |
| 4 | $33,000 | $34,160 | $2,847 |
| 5 | $38,680 | $40,040 | $3,337 |
| 6 | $44,360 | $45,920 | $3,827 |
| 7 | $50,040 | $51,800 | $4,317 |
| 8 | $55,720 | $57,680 | $4,807 |
For households with more than 8 people, add approximately $5,880 for each additional person under the base-case projection (up from $5,680 in 2026).
How the projection changes under different inflation rates
Inflation in 2026 has been volatile, so a single estimate can mislead. The table below shows the projected 2027 annual figure for a household of one and a household of four under three inflation scenarios. Use the low end for conservative planning and the high end if energy-driven inflation persists through the rest of the year.
| Scenario | Inflation applied | Household of 1 | Household of 4 |
|---|
| Low | 2.5% | $16,360 | $33,820 |
| Base | 3.5% | $16,520 | $34,160 |
| High | 4.5% | $16,680 | $34,480 |
The spread between the low and high scenarios is only a few hundred dollars for most household sizes. That is because the FPL adjustment is a percentage of an already modest base. Even in a high-inflation year, the annual chart moves by a predictable amount.
Projected 2027 figures for Alaska and Hawaii
Alaska and Hawaii receive higher poverty guidelines to reflect higher living costs. Applying the same 3.5% base-case adjustment to the confirmed 2026 numbers produces these projected 2027 figures.
Alaska (projected 2027, base case)
| Household size | 2026 (official) | 2027 (projected) |
|---|
| 1 | $19,950 | $20,650 |
| 2 | $27,050 | $28,000 |
| 3 | $34,150 | $35,340 |
| 4 | $41,250 | $42,690 |
Hawaii (projected 2027, base case)
| Household size | 2026 (official) | 2027 (projected) |
|---|
| 1 | $18,360 | $19,000 |
| 2 | $24,890 | $25,760 |
| 3 | $31,420 | $32,520 |
| 4 | $37,950 | $39,280 |
What the 2027 projection means for benefit programs
The federal poverty level is the yardstick behind eligibility for dozens of programs. Most programs use a percentage of the FPL as their cutoff. Here is how the base-case 2027 projection translates into common thresholds for a household of one and a household of four.
| Program benchmark | % of FPL | Projected 2027, household of 1 | Projected 2027, household of 4 |
|---|
| Medicaid expansion adults | 138% | approximately $22,800 | approximately $47,140 |
| SNAP gross income limit | 130% | approximately $21,480 | approximately $44,410 |
| ACA subsidy lower bound | 100% | approximately $16,520 | approximately $34,160 |
| ACA subsidy common upper range | 400% | approximately $66,080 | approximately $136,640 |
One important timing note. Programs do not always use the guidelines from the current calendar year. The ACA marketplace, for example, uses the prior year's poverty guidelines to set subsidy eligibility for a coverage year. That means the 2026 guidelines will govern 2027 marketplace coverage, and the 2027 guidelines will govern 2028 coverage. Medicaid and SNAP generally update to the new guidelines shortly after HHS releases them each year. If you are checking eligibility, confirm which year's chart the specific program is using.
When the official 2027 numbers will be released
HHS typically publishes the annual poverty guidelines in the second half of January. The 2026 guidelines appeared in mid-January 2026 through a Federal Register notice. Expect the official 2027 chart to follow the same pattern, likely in mid to late January 2027. Once it publishes, the projected figures on this page should be replaced with the confirmed numbers, which may differ by a small amount depending on where full-year 2026 inflation actually lands.
How to use these projections now
If you are planning ahead for open enrollment, a Medicaid application, or a budget for 2027, the base-case chart is a reasonable working estimate. Keep three things in mind. First, treat every figure here as approximate until January 2027. Second, use the low scenario if you want to avoid overestimating an income limit you might be close to. Third, remember that eligibility depends on how each program counts income, household size, and deductions, not just the raw FPL number.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the projected federal poverty level for 2027?
The projected 2027 federal poverty level is approximately $16,520 for one person and approximately $34,160 for a family of four in the 48 contiguous states, based on a 3.5% inflation adjustment to the confirmed 2026 guidelines. These are estimates. Official figures are expected from HHS in January 2027.
When will the official 2027 poverty guidelines come out?
HHS usually releases the annual poverty guidelines in the second half of January. The official 2027 chart will likely publish in mid to late January 2027 through a Federal Register notice, following the same schedule as prior years.
How is the 2027 poverty level calculated?
HHS takes the previous year's guidelines and raises them by the change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the prior calendar year. The 2027 guidelines will be the 2026 numbers increased by the full-year 2026 inflation rate, then rounded to the nearest $20.
Why does the 2027 estimate use a range of inflation rates?
Inflation in 2026 has been volatile, running above 4% on a headline basis in the spring while core inflation stayed near 3%. Because the final full-year figure is not known yet, showing a range from 2.5% to 4.5% gives a more honest picture than a single point estimate.
Will the 2027 poverty level be higher than 2026?
Almost certainly yes. The poverty guidelines rise nearly every year because they are indexed to inflation, and prices have continued to climb in 2026. The only question is by how much, which is why the 2027 chart is presented as a projection with a range.
What programs use the federal poverty level?
The FPL sets eligibility for Medicaid, SNAP (food stamps), ACA marketplace subsidies, CHIP, LIHEAP, WIC, and many other federal and state assistance programs. Most use a percentage of the FPL, such as 138% for Medicaid expansion or 130% for the SNAP gross income limit.
Sources: HHS ASPE Poverty Guidelines, Federal Register: Annual Update of the HHS Poverty Guidelines, BLS Consumer Price Index Summary, HealthCare.gov Federal Poverty Level Glossary
