There is no official 2028 Social Security COLA yet, and there will not be one until October 2027. The only published estimate from a government source is 2.4%, the intermediate assumption in the 2026 Social Security Trustees Report (released June 9, 2026), with a low-cost path of 3.0% and a high-cost path of 1.8%. The 2028 COLA will be the percentage rise in the average CPI-W for July, August and September 2027 over the same three months of 2026. That 2026 starting point is already fixed at 328.746. As of November 3, 2026, not one month of the 2027 measuring period has been published, so any figure you see today, including this one, is an estimate.
This page explains what is known, what is not, and the exact dates each piece of inflation data will post. We will update it as each month's CPI-W number comes out. If you want the official raise that takes effect in January 2027, see our 2027 COLA guide, which covers the 3.6% increase SSA announced on October 14, 2026.
The 2028 COLA at a Glance
| Item | What we know (as of November 3, 2026) | Status |
|---|
| Official 2028 COLA | Not set | Announced in October 2027 |
| Trustees intermediate estimate | 2.4% | Estimate, 2026 Trustees Report, Table V.C1 |
| Trustees range | 1.8% (high-cost) to 3.0% (low-cost) | Estimate, same table |
| Base it is measured from | 328.746 (Q3 2026 average CPI-W) | Final, published by BLS |
| Months that will set it | July, August and September 2027 | None published yet |
| Most recent CPI-W reading | 330.654 for September 2026 | Final, published October 14, 2026 |
| Likely announcement date | October 14, 2027 | BLS release date for September 2027 CPI |
| First check with the raise | January 2028 (SSI: December 31, 2027) | Based on SSA's normal schedule |
"COLA 2028" can mean two different things, and the confusion is common. The raise that shows up in January 2028 checks is the one people usually mean, and that is what this page covers. SSA technically calls it the COLA "effective December 2027," because it applies to December 2027 benefits, which are paid in January 2028. The Trustees Report labels it under 2027 for the same reason.
How SSA Will Calculate the 2028 COLA
The formula is set by law and does not change from year to year. SSA does not choose the number. It falls out of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data.
- BLS publishes the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) each month.
- SSA averages the CPI-W for July, August and September 2027.
- SSA compares that average to the July to September 2026 average, which was 328.746.
- The percentage increase, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, becomes the COLA.
- If prices did not rise, there is no COLA. Benefits do not go down.
Here are the three months that already make up the base. These are final BLS figures (series CWUR0000SA0, not seasonally adjusted):
| Month | CPI-W |
|---|
| July 2026 | 327.104 |
| August 2026 | 328.481 |
| September 2026 | 330.654 |
| Q3 2026 average (the base) | 328.746 |
So the math for 2028 is simple: take the Q3 2027 average, divide it by 328.746, subtract 1, and round. The only unknown is what prices do between now and September 2027.
What the Q3 2027 Average Would Need to Be
This table works the formula backward. It shows the average CPI-W that July, August and September 2027 would need to reach for each COLA. The dollar amounts are illustrations, not forecasts.
| 2028 COLA | Q3 2027 average CPI-W needed | Where the figure comes from |
|---|
| 1.8% | about 334.66 | Trustees high-cost path |
| 2.4% | about 336.64 | Trustees intermediate path |
| 3.0% | about 338.61 | Trustees low-cost path |
| 3.9% | about 341.57 | If CPI-W kept rising at its September 2026 12-month pace (our illustration only) |
For context, the September 2026 CPI-W was already 330.654, which is about 0.6% above the 2026 base. CPI-W rose 3.9% in the 12 months to September 2026 (330.654 versus 318.139 a year earlier). That is well above the Trustees' assumption. If that pace held for another year, the 2028 COLA would land near 3.9%. If inflation cools the way the Trustees assume, it would land closer to 2.4%. Nobody knows which, and a single monthly reading can move a lot.
Month-by-Month Tracker: When Each CPI-W Number Posts
BLS publishes CPI data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on the dates below (from the official BLS release schedule). The months from October 2026 to June 2027 do not enter the formula directly, but they show the direction of inflation and move every outside forecast. The three months that count are marked.
| Data month | BLS release date | CPI-W | Counts toward the 2028 COLA? |
|---|
| September 2026 | October 14, 2026 | 330.654 | No (part of the 2026 base) |
| October 2026 | November 10, 2026 | Not published yet | No, trend only |
| November 2026 | December 10, 2026 | Not published yet | No, trend only |
| December 2026 | January 13, 2027 | Not published yet | No, trend only |
| January 2027 | February 11, 2027 | Not published yet | No, trend only |
| February 2027 | March 10, 2027 | Not published yet | No, trend only |
| March 2027 | April 13, 2027 | Not published yet | No, trend only |
| April 2027 | May 12, 2027 | Not published yet | No, trend only |
| May 2027 | June 10, 2027 | Not published yet | No, trend only |
| June 2027 | July 14, 2027 | Not published yet | No, trend only |
| July 2027 | August 11, 2027 | Not published yet | Yes |
| August 2027 | September 14, 2027 | Not published yet | Yes |
| September 2027 | October 14, 2027 | Not published yet | Yes, and the COLA is set that day |
We will fill in each row as BLS posts it. We will not print a monthly "2028 COLA estimate" until there is real data behind it. A month-by-month projection made today would be a guess dressed up as a number.
What the Trustees Report Says
The Social Security Trustees publish economic assumptions every year. In the 2026 report, Table V.C1 lists the cost-of-living increase for each year under three scenarios. For the increase effective December 2027 (paid in January 2028):
| Trustees scenario | COLA effective December 2027 | CPI growth assumed for 2027 |
|---|
| Intermediate (main estimate) | 2.4% | 2.46% |
| Low-cost | 3.0% | 3.00% |
| High-cost | 1.8% | 1.85% |
Source: 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, Tables V.C1 and V.B1.
Two things to keep in mind:
- These are planning assumptions, not inflation forecasts. The Trustees use them to project the trust funds over 75 years. They are not trying to call next year's CPI.
- The same report was 0.9 points low for 2027. The 2026 Trustees Report put the COLA effective December 2026 at 2.7%. The actual figure SSA announced on October 14, 2026 was 3.6%. That gap is a fair warning about any early estimate, including 2.4%.
Private groups such as The Senior Citizens League usually begin publishing monthly COLA estimates for the coming year once the new measuring period gets underway. As of November 3, 2026, we found no 2028 estimate from them. When one appears, we will add it here with its date and method.
Recent COLA History
| Year paid | COLA |
|---|
| 2021 | 1.3% |
| 2022 | 5.9% |
| 2023 | 8.7% |
| 2024 | 3.2% |
| 2025 | 2.5% |
| 2026 | 2.8% |
| 2027 | 3.6% (announced October 14, 2026) |
| 2028 | Not set. Trustees estimate 2.4% |
The last five COLAs have ranged from 2.5% to 8.7%. The 2027 increase was the largest since 2023.
What a 2028 COLA Could Mean for Your Check
Your COLA is a percentage of your own benefit, so the dollar raise depends on what you get after the 2027 increase. The examples below start from SSA's estimated January 2027 averages and the 2027 SSI federal rates. They are illustrations at the Trustees' three rates, not predictions.
| Benefit (January 2027) | At 1.8% | At 2.4% | At 3.0% |
|---|
| Average retired worker ($2,170, SSA estimate) | about +$39 | about +$52 | about +$65 |
| Average aged couple ($3,355, SSA estimate) | about +$60 | about +$81 | about +$101 |
| Average disabled worker ($1,701, SSA estimate) | about +$31 | about +$41 | about +$51 |
| SSI individual ($1,029 federal rate) | about $1,047 | about $1,053 | about $1,059 |
| SSI couple ($1,544 federal rate) | about $1,571 | about $1,581 | about $1,590 |
To estimate your own raise, multiply your January 2027 benefit by the rate. A $1,500 check at 2.4% would go up about $36 a month. SSI amounts may come out a dollar or so different, because SSA rounds the yearly SSI amount down to a multiple of $12.
SSI recipients should also check whether their state adds a supplement on top of the federal rate. See our state SSI supplement amounts.
Medicare can take part of the raise
If Medicare Part B comes out of your Social Security check, the 2028 Part B premium will decide how much of your COLA you actually see. CMS has not published the 2028 premium, and it will not until late 2027. We do not estimate it. A "hold harmless" rule keeps most people's net Social Security check from going down because of a Part B increase, but it does not protect everyone, and it does not stop a premium increase from eating most of a small raise.
What the 2028 COLA Will Also Change
The COLA moves more than benefit checks. When SSA announces the 2028 COLA in October 2027, it will also publish 2028 figures for:
- The SSI federal benefit rate and the SSI income limits
- The earnings limit for people who claim retirement before full retirement age
- The amount of earnings needed for one work credit
- The maximum earnings subject to Social Security tax
- The substantial gainful activity (SGA) limit and trial work month amount for disability beneficiaries
Most of those are tied to the national average wage index, not the COLA itself, but SSA announces them together. Some cannot rise in a year with no COLA. For now, the current and announced figures are: in 2026, SSI pays $994 a month for an individual and SGA is $1,690 ($2,830 if blind); for 2027, SSA has announced $1,029 for SSI and $1,770 for SGA ($2,950 if blind), effective January 2027.
If you are deciding between SSI and SSDI, see our SSDI vs SSI guide.
How to Follow the 2028 COLA Yourself
- Bookmark the BLS CPI release page. The CPI-W figure for each month posts on the dates in the tracker above.
- Watch the July, August and September 2027 numbers. Only those three months count. Average them and compare to 328.746.
- Check SSA on October 14, 2027. SSA normally announces the COLA the same morning BLS releases September CPI, at ssa.gov/cola.
- Look for your COLA notice. SSA posts a COLA notice in your my Social Security message center late in the year and also sends one by mail unless you chose online-only notices.
- Check your January 2028 deposit. That is the first Social Security payment with the 2028 COLA. SSI recipients get it in the payment dated December 31, 2027, because January 1, 2028 falls on a Saturday.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Social Security COLA for 2028?
It has not been set. SSA will announce it in October 2027, most likely on October 14, 2027, when BLS releases September 2027 inflation data. The only government estimate is 2.4%, from the 2026 Trustees Report's intermediate assumptions. That is an estimate, not an official figure.
How is the 2028 COLA calculated?
SSA takes the average CPI-W for July, August and September 2027 and compares it to the average for the same months in 2026, which was 328.746. The percentage increase, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, becomes the COLA. If there is no increase, there is no COLA.
When will I see the 2028 COLA in my check?
Social Security beneficiaries see it in their January 2028 payment. SSI recipients see it in the payment dated December 31, 2027, which is the January 2028 SSI payment moved up because January 1 falls on a weekend.
Will the 2028 COLA be higher or lower than 2027?
No one can say yet. The 2027 COLA is 3.6%. The Trustees assume 2.4% for the next one, which would be lower. But CPI-W was rising at 3.9% a year as of September 2026, above that assumption. The answer depends on inflation through September 2027.
Is the 2.4% estimate reliable?
Treat it as a starting point. The Trustees use it for long-range trust fund planning, not to forecast next year's prices. Their 2026 report assumed 2.7% for the increase that turned out to be 3.6%. Early estimates often miss by a point or more.
Does the 2028 COLA apply to SSI and SSDI?
Yes. The same COLA applies to retirement, survivor and disability (SSDI) benefits and to the federal SSI payment. Some state SSI supplements do not rise automatically with it.
Could there be no COLA in 2028?
Only if the Q3 2027 average CPI-W is not higher than 328.746. That has happened three times since automatic COLAs began (2010, 2011 and 2016). With CPI-W already at 330.654 in September 2026, a zero COLA would require prices to fall over the next year.
Will Medicare premiums cut into the 2028 COLA?
They could. The 2028 Part B premium is not published and will not be until late 2027. If it rises, it comes out of the same check, so your net raise will be smaller than the COLA percentage suggests.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI-W series CWUR0000SA0 and CPI release schedule (bls.gov); Social Security Administration, 2027 COLA announcement and fact sheet (ssa.gov/cola); 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, Tables V.B1 and V.C1 (ssa.gov/oact/tr). Estimates on this page are labeled as estimates. The official 2028 COLA will come only from SSA. Last checked November 3, 2026.
